/substanceBreakling reply @JeffreyBenson12 /substance 2026-09-01
Original · Jeffrey Benson
I really haven’t spoken much on the landscape of the industry lately but thought it’d be a good time for a longer form post on my feelings. This is the kind of stuff that really pisses me off. I hate the virtue signaling from those at the top in the Prediction Market space especi…
/substanceBreakling
The "we don't make money when people lose" line from prediction markets isn't a moral stance. It's a fee model with better marketing. You make money when people trade, and most people who trade lose. That's their own data: roughly 70%, same as sportsbooks, same as day trading. The customer is still putting money on an uncertain outcome. That's gambling; the rest is branding. The virtuous framing is about jurisdiction: a federal CFTC wrapper lets prediction markets operate where sportsbooks can't. If most of the action is sports and the screen looks like a bet slip, that's a sportsbook that found a different regulatory door. Fine. Compete on that. Just drop the sermon. We're in the same business.