The September 15 vote is cloture, not passage
Two anonymous Polymarket traders bet about 1.5 million dollars that the CLARITY Act fails. What the Senate votes on next week is narrower than the posts suggest.
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What the vote is
On 15 September the Senate votes on cloture on the motion to proceed. That needs 60 votes just to open debate. Republicans hold 53 seats, so at least seven Democrats must cross, more if Rand Paul and Josh Hawley vote no.
What the odds say
Polymarket prices the bill becoming law in 2026 at about 15 percent. Coin Bureau puts the February peak at 82 percent, DeFi Rate at 72. The big bet is against enactment this year, not against the 15 September vote.
What is unresolved
Stablecoin yield, which banks say drains deposits; an enforceable ban on officeholders profiting from crypto; and how much anti-money-laundering duty falls on DeFi developers. If cloture fails, the bill likely waits until after the midterms.