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Markets expected Kevin Warsh's first rate hike. August data left little room to wait.

Going into Wednesday's meeting, traders put an 87% chance on a quarter-point increase. The question was whether the Fed could afford to leave rates alone.

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Why the odds jumped

August brought firmer inflation and much stronger hiring than economists expected. Rate-hike expectations rose sharply over the following week.

What the Fed signalled

Rates had been unchanged since December. Warsh had already warned that inflation remained too high and said the Fed was ready to act.

What markets heard

Stock futures fell as investors prepared for tighter money. Separate calls from technology leaders to slow AI development added pressure to growth shares.

Sources

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